Africa’s top 4 economies are in trouble

JOHANNESBURG — South Africateeters on the edge of an economic cliff. At the bottom is the debt rating known as junk, which economists say is a distinct possibility in coming months.
JOHANNESBURG — South Africa teeters on the edge of an economic cliff. At the bottom is the debt rating known as junk, which economists say is a distinct possibility in coming months.

Growth in Africa has outpaced most emerging markets in recent years, but that’s changing fast as a slew of problems beset its leading economies. Here’s what you need to know about sub-Saharan Africa’s big four:

SOUTH AFRICA

The prospects for Africa’s most advanced economy are not looking good. The country is set to grow by just 0.6% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. It’s one of the slowest growing countries in one of the world’s fastest growing territories.

The rand plummeted 30% last year, and not just because of an emerging market sell-off. Political turmoil has also had a big impact.

Just this month, South African President Jacob Zuma survived impeachment despite the highest court in the land finding him guilty of breaching the constitution over how public money was spent renovating his home. Well known figures from the anti-apartheid struggle are now calling for Zuma to step down.

Chaos in government isn’t helping either. Zuma stunned investors by replacing Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene with a little known politician. The president then backtracked and asked Nene’s predecessor Pravin Gordhan to take the position in order to stop the rand’s freefall.

The rand has steadied this year, rallying by about 7%. It’s been helped by a broader rally in markets driven by rising commodity prices. As a platinum, gold and coal producer, South Africa is sensitive to shifts in the commodity cycle.

But the country is not out of the woods yet. It’s on the brink of a ratings downgrade that would plunge its sovereign debt into junk status.

Still, investors are showing some renewed confidence, buying up $1.86 billion worth of bonds so far in 2016 — the best start to a year since 2010.

NIGERIA

Africa’s largest economy is buckling under the low oil price.  Nigeria relies on oil for 70% of government revenue and accounts for 90% of export revenue. That leaves very little room to adjust the country’s budget. For an emerging market that can only mean one thing — slower growth.  The West African nation is expected to clock in growth of 2.3%, the lowest rate in 15 years, according to the IMF. Its facing a shortfall of $11 billion in its 2016 budget.

Nigerians have grappled with unending shortage of petrol products across the country.
Nigerians have grappled with unending shortage of petrol products across the country.

Discussions between Nigeria and the World Bank are continuing on a possible loan or credit facility that would be tied to policy reforms.  It has drawn down its currency reserves and implemented capital controls, making access to dollars very difficult. In an economy that relies on imports, the controls have made life difficult for companies and two South African businesses have already pulled out.

Index compiler MSCI is considering removing Nigeria from its frontier market index because the restrictions have made it harder for investors to repatriate money. To make matters worse, the country is facing a fuel crisis. Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, it has never had enough refining capacity, and the scarcity of dollars is making it harder for importers to bring gas into the country. The war against Al-Qaeda linked terror group Boko Haram, which the government has vowed to eradicate, is placing further strain on the country’s finances.

ANGOLA

What was once one of Africa’s fastest growing economies is now on its knees and asking for help from the IMF. Angola is Africa’s second largest oil producer and relies on oil for 95% of government revenue.

After debuting on the international debt market last year, the country appears unable to meet its budget and debt obligations. It has requested assistance from the IMF in the form of monetary support. Angola is also bound to money-for-oil deals with China. It has used oil as collateral for loans from China, and that is further squeezing state finances. The country is set to grow by 3.5% this year, down from 6.8% in 2013, according to the IMF.

KENYA

Kenya’s economy is more resilient and diversified but there’s trouble brewing in its banking sector. Three banks are being wound down by the central bank. Two of the banks failed last year, and a third was forced into the arms of the lender of last resort this month. A fourth bank is being investigated, and analysts believe consolidation in the industry is inevitable.

The East African nation has 43 banks, most of which have overstated profits and are buckling under the weight of non-performing loans and a big fall in deposits. A dozen banks may end up under central bank control as it tries to clean up the sector.  All this is weighing on Kenya’s growth prospects: The IMF has just cut its forecast to 6% for 2016, down from 6.8% previously.

This Nigeria’s state governors is pleading with China to ignore President Buhari’s loan request

The Ekiti governor, Ayodele Fayose, claimed that 25 percent of the Federal Government’s budget was already being used to service national debt.
The Ekiti governor, Ayodele Fayose, claimed that 25 percent of the Federal Government’s budget was already being used to service national debt.

By   |  Newsweek/

A Nigerian state governor and vocal critic of President Muhammadu Buhari has written to the Chinese government, requesting they not approve a billion-dollar loan to the West African country.

Ayodele Fayose, the governor of Nigeria’s western Ekiti state, penned the letter during a working visit to China by Buhari and other senior government officials, including Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun. The finance minister was reportedly traveling to China to seek a loan of around $2 billion, to help fund Nigeria’s record budget, which is predicted to generate a deficit of 3 trillion naira ($15 billion) in 2016, Reuters reported.

“While conceding that all nations, especially developing ones, need support to be able to grow because no nation is an island, I am constrained to inform you that if the future of Nigeria must be protected, the country does not need any loan at this time,” said Fayose in the letter dated April 12, which was obtained by Nigeria’s Premium Times on Thursday.

Fayose—a member of the opposition People’s Democratic Party, which was ousted from government when Buhari defeated the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan in elections in March 2015—added that “Nigerians, irrespective of their political and religious affiliations, are totally opposed to [the] increment of the country’s debt burden.”

The Ekiti governor claimed that 25 percent of the Federal Government’s budget was already being used to service national debt. The letter was reportedly delivered to the Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria, Gu Xiaojie, in Abuja on Thursday. Newsweek contacted the Chinese Embassy in Nigeria but no one was immediately available to comment.

It is not clear whether such a $2 billion loan to fund Nigeria’s deficit has been agreed during the state visit to China. Beijing has offered Nigeria a $6 billion loan to fund various infrastructure projects, according to Nigerian Foreign Minister Geoffrey Onyeama, after negotiations between Buhari and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Prior to the trip, Adeosun also spoke of the possibility of financing the deficit through the issuing of Panda Bonds —bonds sold by a foreign entity in China that are issued in the Chinese yuan (or renminbi) currency.

Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari (L) speaks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (R) at a meeting in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, April 13. Buhari and his delegation have reportedly sought several Chinese loans during a state visit.
Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari (L) speaks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (R) at a meeting in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, April 13. Buhari and his delegation have reportedly sought several Chinese loans during a state visit.

Fayose’s criticism of Buhari is not without precedent. The Ekiti governor previously criticized the president for attending a nuclear summit in Washington, D.C. from March 31-April 3 while Nigeria was suffering power outages and a fuel shortage that has seen massive queues gather outside gas stations across the country. The PDP member has also been scathing of Buhari’s handling of the 2016 budget, which the president is yet to sign off. The budget was first proposed by Buhari in December 2015 but its implementation has been slowed after various irregularities were discovered, such as 795 million naira ($4 million) being set aside for the renovation of one unnamed government ministry’s website.

 

Nigeria’s Obasanjo Sees Hope Beyond Boko Haram

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The rebuilding of northeast Nigeria communities destroyed during the seven-year insurgency of Boko Haram terrorists will take a long time, but improvements are being made, former President Olusegun Obasanjo says.

The Nigerian military has dislodged Boko Haram from many of its strongholds in recent years, and more than 1 million displaced persons are now returning home. Obasanjo, interviewed on VOA’s “Africa News Tonight,” said he saw hope for the region after his recent visit to the capital of the northeastern state of Borno.

”About two weeks ago,” he said, “I was in Maiduguri, which is, if you like, the epicenter of Boko Haram, just to see for myself what exactly is going on. I think compared with what I saw when I went there in 2011, there’s a marked improvement. That city has taken a new shape, a new life.”

Five years ago, Obasanjo said, any visitor could see upon arrival that he was in a war zone, but “that is not the case today, and the governor proudly told me that we are now rehabilitating internally displaced persons. His ambition is by the end of this year, there will be no internally displaced person in any camp. The military informed me the morale of the soldiers is very high.”

The former president said that while the military appeared to have retaken territory from Boko Haram, there’s still work to be done to re-establish peace and stability. Much of that work involves providing support for the area’s most vulnerable and those hardest hit by Boko Haram: women and children.

Obasanjo said that once the military has secured a particular area, the state government encourages women to return home and rebuild their lives.

“The governor has decided the women will have their livestock,” he said. “They will supply them with livestock — goats and sheep. Fortunately, there are no land mines in the fields. So schools will be opened. Health centers and clinics will be opened. From what I heard and saw — from the ordinary people, from the military and from the state administration — I am certain that we are about to see the light beyond the tunnel.”

Obasnajo acknowledged that rebuilding the region’s infrastructure, plus health and other social services, would require a long-term effort. As an example, he contended that it takes 10 years for investments in education to yield results.

The former president urged the international community to help guarantee a secure, stable future for Nigeria’s shattered northeast.

Ghana government memo warns of possible militant attack

Customers peruse goods at Makola market in Accra, Ghana
Customers peruse goods at Makola market in Accra, Ghana.

ACCRA (Reuters) – Ghana and Togo are the next targets for Islamist militants following high-profile attacks this year in Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast, according to a memo from Ghana’s Immigration Service.

The memo calls for better border protection in the latest sign of a heightened government response to the threat to West Africa by militants based in northern Mali who have stepped up a campaign of violence in the last year.

It says the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) has evidence from neighbouring Ivory Coast from the interrogation of a man suspected of orchestrating an attack on March 13 in which 18 people were killed. [nL5N16M30G]

“Intelligence gathered by the … NSCS indicates a possible terrorist attack on the country is real. … The choice of Ghana according to the report is to take away the perception that only Francophone countries are the target,” said the memo, dated April 9 and published by Ghanaian media.

It ordered immigration agents on the northern border with Burkina Faso to be extra vigilant and said patrols should be stepped up along informal routes between the two countries.

Ghana is one of Africa’s most stable and peaceful democracies and has not suffered an attack by Islamist militants. Togo is the country’s eastern neighbour.

President John Mahama spoke about the memo in an interview on state radio’s Sunrise FM on Thursday. He asked for public vigilance and said Ghana was also at risk from home grown militants, while noting that countries in the region share intelligence on militant threats.

“We must deal with this without creating panic amongst our people,” he said, adding that the memo should not have detailed the intelligence on which its calls for greater vigilance were based.

Government spokesmen in the presidency and at the immigration ministry did not return calls requesting comment.

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has claimed responsibility for attacks on a hotel in the capital of Mali last November, a restaurant and hotel in Burkina Faso’s capital in January and the Ivory Coast attack. In all, more than 65 people have died, many of them foreigners.

Thousands protest against Mugabe in Zimbabwe capital

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Harare (AFP) – Demonstrators in Zimbabwe held the largest protest against President Robert Mugabe in nearly a decade on Thursday, marching through central Harare demanding that the “tired” leader make a “dignified exit.”

Under the watchful eye of riot police, more than 2,000 supporters of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) carried anti-Mugabe placards and sang party songs before their leader Morgan Tsvangirai gave a speech attacking Mugabe’s rule.

Anti-government protests in Zimbabwe have often been brutally broken up by police under the authoritarian regime of the president, who has been in power since independence in 1980.

Mugabe, 92, remains active but his increasingly fragile health has sparked intense speculation over his successor and the fate of the country when his rule come to an end.

Zimbabwe has suffered years of economic collapse and mass emigration during an era marked by intolerance of dissent, vote rigging and accusations of human rights abuses.

“Mugabe has no solution to the crisis,” Tsvangirai said in a brief speech to supporters gathered in Africa Unity Square wearing T-shirts in the party’s red colours.

“We are here to tell Mugabe and his regime that you have failed.

“We are not demanding an overthrow of the government… We are demanding a dignified exit for the tired Mugabe.

“It’s time Mugabe listens to the voice of the people. The people shall liberate themselves.”

The march, which had been authorised on Wednesday in a last-minute court ruling, was peaceful, with police on duty in full riot gear armed with batons and water canon.

“This is a demonstration against poverty and corruption,” Douglas Mwonzora, an MDC party spokesman told journalists.

“We have an empty promise of 2.2 million jobs which are not there. We have massive corruption.”

The MDC has vowed to hold more protests around the country, which is also beset by severe food shortages worsened by its economic decline since land reforms started in 2000.

“Old clueless Mugabe must go,” read one protest placard, while another said “Enough” in Zimbabwe’s three main languages.

Marchers were greeted by blaring car horns, and clapping and whistles by onlookers including some people waving from windows in high-rise buildings.

Mugabe, who still gives fiery 90-minutes speeches on his feet, is expected to stand again for election in 2018.

Missing Ugandan maid fuels fears of abuse in Saudi Arabia

 

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By Yasin Kakande |  Thomson Reuters Foundation

KAMPALA, April 13 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Jannat Mubiru has heard nothing from her daughter since the 27-year-old called to say she had arrived safely in Riyadh, where she was due to start work as a maid five months ago.

Mubiru has repeatedly phoned the Saudi number her daughter, Shamim Nakitende, used but her calls went unanswered at first, and then were blocked.

“There are so many stories of Ugandans being mistreated in Saudi Arabia. I am so worried,” Mubiru told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

“Shamim left behind a daughter and son and it’s difficult to answer their daily questions about their mother without knowing if she is still alive or not,” she added.

Since Nakitende left, the company which had offered her work in Saudi Arabia has closed its external recruitment department and severed links with the unit’s director over violations of recruitment guidelines, Mubiru said.

More than 10,000 Ugandans are estimated to be working in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait as security guards, domestic workers, drivers and cashiers in supermarkets and fast food restaurants.

In January, the Ugandan government announced a ban with immediate effect on the recruitment of Ugandans as domestic workers in Saudi Arabia, after the local media reported cases of abuse and mistreatment.

Despite the ban, the recruitment of Ugandans to work in the oil-rich Gulf states is still flourishing as agents prey on jobless youths in the east African country eager for adventure, overseas travel and the promise of a good salary.

Minister of Gender, Labour and Social Welfare Muruli Mukasa said the government had received many complaints of exploitation from workers in the Gulf – including having their passports confiscated on arrival and being made to work 12 hours a day or more, sometimes without enough to eat.

Some also reported having their salaries withheld and being subjected to verbal abuse, physical assault, threats and intimidation by their employers.

Thomson Reuters Foundation asked Saudi embassy officials to respond but they declined to comment.

UNSCRUPULOUS AGENTS

Some Ugandans said they were deceived as to the nature and income of their promised jobs by recruitment companies, though these were licensed and vetted by the authorities.

The same agencies sometimes took money from both the prospective employer and the migrant worker to cover recruitment fees, the cost of a visa and the air fare, workers said.

“An Arab employer who has paid these exorbitant fees, believes he or she just bought you. In other words you are his slave with no rights whatsoever,” said Ramla Nakazibwe, who returned from the UAE in January, her dream in tatters.

Nakazibwe used a licensed recruitment agency to find her a job in the UAE, spending 6 million shillings ($1,800) on fees.

Instead of working in a supermarket as she was promised, she was given a cleaner’s job which paid only 600 dirhams ($160) a month.

President Yoweri Museveni’s government is trying to raise awareness of the risks of being trafficked abroad, using a TV campaign urging Ugandans to be careful about overseas job offers, said Moses Binoga, national coordinator for the interior ministry’s anti-trafficking task force.

TOUGHER PENALTIES FOR UNLICENSED AGENTS

He said his task force was lobbying government for a review of 2005 guidelines on the export of labour, seeking tougher penalties for recruitment agents working without a licence.

“The government should also be urged to develop international agreements (extradition treaties) with the Middle East countries so that those who exploit Ugandans can face justice also,” Binoga told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Theopista Nabulya, a member of parliament representing exploited workers, said her group had asked the government to stop licensing recruitment companies unless a proper system was in place to protect migrant workers’ rights.

She said she had visited Ugandans in most of the Gulf Arab states between 2011 and 2015, and found that most of them had been duped at some point during the process.

Some of the worst exploitation involved women who had escaped from their employers and ended up as sex workers in Dubai, she said.”There’s an opportunity to arrive at the same results (of getting Ugandan jobs in the Gulf) by making the process cleaner and more ethical, without preventing Ugandans from migration,” Nabulya told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Child suicide bombers increase 11 fold in West Africa

Children walk down the street of Chibok in Borno State, northeast Nigeria. In April 2014, Boko Haram militants kidnapped 276 schoolgirls from their dormitories at the government run girls’ secondary school in Chibok, drawing global attention to the Islamist insurgency in northeast Nigeria. Photograph: Stefan Heunisstefan/Getty Images
Children walk down the street of Chibok in Borno State, northeast Nigeria. In April 2014, Boko Haram militants kidnapped 276 schoolgirls from their dormitories at the government run girls’ secondary school in Chibok, drawing global attention to the Islamist insurgency in northeast Nigeria. Photograph: Stefan Heunisstefan/Getty Images

Boko Haram child suicide bombings have surged 11-fold in West Africa over the last year, UNICEF said on Tuesday. There were 44 child suicide bombings in West Africa last year, up from four in 2014, mostly in Cameroon and Nigeria. Children as young as eight, mostly girls, are detonating bombs in schools and markets.

Suicide bombings have spread beyond Nigeria’s borders, with an increasing number of deadly attacks carried out by children with explosives hidden under their clothes or in baskets. “The use of children, especially girls, as so-called suicide bombers has become a defining and alarming feature of this conflict,” Laurent Duvillier, regional spokesman for UNICEF said. “It’s basically turning the children against their own communities by strapping bombs around their bodies.”

Some young children probably do not know they are carrying explosives, which are often detonated remotely, Mr Duvillier said. It is two years since Boko Haram abducted 276 Nigerian schoolgirls in Chibok, many of whom were forced to convert to Islam and marry their captors. Three-quarters of the suicide bombers have been girls who are often thought less likely to arouse suspicion, although that may be changing now, UNICEF said.

Abducted boys are forced to attack their own families to demonstrate their loyalty to Boko Haram, it said. Although many children are being released from captivity as the military reclaims territory from Boko Haram, they often face stigma and rejection. “Some women would beat me,” 17-year-old Khadija, who lives in a camp for displaced people in Nigeria, told UNICEF. She and her baby, born of rape, escaped captivity during a Nigerian army attack on Boko Haram.

“They said: ‘You are a Boko Haram wife, don’t come near us!’” she told UNICEF. Children are the main victims in one of Africa’s fastest growing humanitarian crises, UNICEF

said. They make up the majority of the 2.3 million people displaced since mid-2013. Those separated from their families by the conflict and out of school are vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups, Mr Duvillier said. Almost one million Nigerian children are missing out on education as Boko Haram has destroyed more than 900 schools and killed more than 600 teachers, Human Rights Watch said on Tuesday.

Islamist Boko Haram’s six-year campaign to set up an Islamic emirate in northeastern Nigeria has killed some 15,000 people, according to the US military. Outmaneuvered after a regional offensive drove it from strongholds in Nigeria last year, Boko Haram is increasingly using children to carry out attacks.

The tactic has proven effective in increasing the number of casualties as people do not usually see children as a threat. It is not clear how Boko Haram coerces children to carry out the attacks, but those who have been raped are more psychologically damaged and vulnerable, the US army says.

Amnesty International estimates Boko Haram has kidnapped about 2,000 women and girls since 2014 for use as cooks, sex slaves, fighters and suicide bombers.

Somalia – Man’s final moments before death by firing squad

Hassan Hanafi Haji, who was extradited from Kenya last year on the request of the Somali government, was killed by firing squad at a police academy in Mogadishu on Monday. Firing squad is the only execution method in Somalia.

 

In his role as a liaison officer with al-Shabab, Haji was known to threaten journalists and radio stations for any reporting not in favor of the Islamic extremist rebels, forcing many media outlets to practice self-censorship for security reasons. Haji later led al-Shabab’s media unit, inviting journalists to press conferences and giving them tours of battlefields.

He often urged journalists to report according to al-Shabab’s media rules, which included avoiding stories related to the group’s military setbacks.

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Journalist-turned-Islamist Hassan Hanafi Haji is tied to a post before being executed by firing squad at a police academy square in Mogadishu, Somalia, on April 11.
Journalist-turned-Islamist Hassan Hanafi Haji is tied to a post before being executed by firing squad at a police academy square in Mogadishu, Somalia, on April 11.

Haji was one of the few suspects prosecuted by the Somali government following years of criticism by rights groups who urged authorities to do more to establish the rule of law and end the killings of journalists.

The killings of media workers often happened in government-controlled areas that journalists generally consider safe.

Somalia is one of the most dangerous countries for media workers. At least 18 Somali journalists were killed last year, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

It’s not entirely clear who has been killing journalists. Al-Shabab rebels, warlords, criminals, and even government agents all could have reasons to see journalists killed in Somalia.

Somalia: Man executed for journalists’ killings

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MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — A former journalist who joined the Islamic extremist group al-Shabab was executed in Somalia’s capital for the killings of five Somali journalists.

Hassan Hanafi Haji, who was extradited from Kenya last year on the request of the Somali government, was killed by firing squad at a police academy in Mogadishu on Monday. Firing squad is the only execution method in Somalia.

In his role as a liaison officer with al-Shabab, Haji was known to threaten journalists and radio stations for any reporting not in favor of the Islamic extremist rebels, forcing many media outlets to practice self-censorship for security reasons. Haji later led al-Shabab’s media unit, inviting journalists to press conferences and giving them tours of battlefields.

He often urged journalists to report according to al-Shabab’s media rules, which included avoiding stories related to the group’s military setbacks.

Haji was one of the few suspects prosecuted by the Somali government following years of criticism by rights groups who urged authorities to do more to establish the rule of law and end the killings of journalists.

Hanafi said he confessed to the killing of journalists following torture by authorities in Mogadishu [AP]
Hanafi said he confessed to the killing of journalists following torture by authorities in Mogadishu [AP]
The killings of media workers often happened in government-controlled areas that journalists generally consider safe.

Somalia is one of the most dangerous countries for media workers. At least 18 Somali journalists were killed last year, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

It’s not entirely clear who has been killing journalists. Al-Shabab rebels, warlords, criminals, and even government agents all could have reasons to see journalists killed in Somalia.

Chad: President in power since 1990 seeks another term

A man casts his ballot during elections in N’Djamena, Chad, Sunday, April 10, 2016. Chadian President Idriss Deby faced off against more than a dozen challengers Sunday as he seeks another term after more than 25 years in power in this central African nation which is battling Islamic extremists. (Abakar Mahamad/Associated Press)
A man casts his ballot during elections in N’Djamena, Chad, Sunday, April 10, 2016. Chadian President Idriss Deby faced off against more than a dozen challengers Sunday as he seeks another term after more than 25 years in power in this central African nation which is battling Islamic extremists. (Abakar Mahamad/Associated Press)

N’DJAMENA, Chad — Chadian President Idriss Deby faced off against more than a dozen challengers Sunday as he seeks another term after more than 25 years in power in this central African nation which is battling Islamic extremists.

The election comes amid mounting international concern about Chad’s human rights record. Four activists are currently awaiting verdicts on charges of trying to disturb the peace and resisting arrest. Internet access was down in the capital of N’Djamena on election day, residents reported.

Deby, who has been in power since 1990, could face a second round of voting because of the large number of candidates. It could be one of the toughest challenges he has faced, according to Thibaud Lesueur, central African senior analyst for the International Crisis Group.

“It’s quite unprecedented to have so many people in the street,” he said, noting that many have been afraid to demonstrate against the incumbent.

Chad, a former French colony, is now home to the French military’s operations in Africa. Chadian soldiers are also on the front lines of the battle against Boko Haram, the Islamic militant group based in northeastern Nigeria.

Many Chadians see the cooperation with the international militaries, including the French, U.S., Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria, as international acceptance of Deby’s leadership, Lesueur said.

As a result of Chad’s support for the ant-extremist battle, the country has been attacked by Boko Haram through a series of suicide bombing attacks. The regional economic upheaval has severely disrupted trade, deepening poverty in this country that has remained desperately poor despite producing oil.

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